HUD ANALYSIS — Hero

Classification and sample

• Profile: Aggro Folder (aggressive with the initiative / folder without it).
• Sample: 192k hands. Data reliability is maximum: these tendencies are structural and they reflect the player's style in the NL20-NL100 pool exactly.

Strengths

• Focused postflop aggression: he holds a WWSF of 51 (above average), which says he wins a lot of pots by applying pressure, without needing to reach showdown.
• Heavy second barrels: his CBET TURN of 60 and his STEAL TURN of 57 make him very hard to float without a legitimate hand, because he rarely gives up after the first bet.
• Protecting aggressive ranges: his FOLD TO RAISE AFTER F CBET (36) is low, which means he does not fold easily when he bets the flop and gets raised; he defends his own initiative well.

Weaknesses / leaks

• Preflop over-fold to 3bets: his biggest leak by far. He folds between 60% and 64% in every position against 3bets, which lets the pool 3bet him profitably with any two cards.
• Disconnect on the river: he bets a lot (BET RIVER 50), yet his WSDWBR of 50 is very low (GTO 64–68). That gives away a massive structural overbluff on the river, above all with big sizes (BET R BIG 59) and overbets (WSDWBR OVERBET 41).
• […]
• Inconsistency once he gives up (delayed cbets): when Hero checks a street as the aggressor he becomes extremely vulnerable. His FOLD TO DELAYED TURN CBET (70 IP / 67 OOP) says that if he is not the one betting, he has nothing and he is folding almost every time.

How to exploit them

• Preflop (attacking his fold equity):

  • 3bet him relentlessly from any position, above all when Hero opens from the CO or the BTN. Folding over 60% guarantees automatic profit.
  • Open 100% of your hands on the BTN and the SB when he is in the blinds; his lack of defence is free money.

• Postflop (hunting bluffs):

  • Bluff-catching on the river: against his third barrel, relax your calling threshold. With a WSDWBR of 50, Hero gets to the river with far more air than theory allows. His overbets are especially suspect (they only win 41% of the time).
  • Attacking his checks: if Hero checks the flop as the aggressor, fire the turn (probe), or make a delayed cbet if he checks the turn too. His FOLD TO DELAYED CBET stats are critical; Hero caps his range completely when he checks.

• Sizings:

  • When he bets small on the river (BET R SMALL 48) he succeeds very rarely (WWRB SMALL 49). You can raise those small sizes as a bluff, because his FOLD TO RAISE AFTER R BET (69) is high: he bets small to take the pot cheaply and he does not stand up to pressure.

• Respect for his 5bet:

  • Hero over-folds to 3bets, but when he does decide to go to war preflop he has ammunition. His EP 5BET+ (22) is very high, which says he is not only jamming premiums: he has bluffs built into his 4bet/5bet range. Adjust the hands you call a 4bet with, or only 5bet real value.

You are absolutely right. My earlier range was semi-polar, and against a profile like Incógnito 1, with a FOLD TO PF 3BET SB = 72% and a 4BET AFTER OR SB = 15% (low, but not negligible), the best answer is a purely polarised range: a clean split between the value that 5bet jams over a 4bet and the bluffs that fold to it, leaving the medium, playable hands in the calling range to attack his postflop leaks IP.

His FOLD TO 5BET AFTER 4BET = 0 also confirms that his 4bet is value only (QQ+, AK). Knowing that, our 3bet value needs decent equity against that range, and our bluffs have to be foldable without regret.

Here is the range in Flopzilla format:

**POLARISED 3BET (value + bluff): ~28-30%**

--- VALUE (5bet jam over a 4bet) ---
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs, AKo

--- BLUFF (fold to a 4bet) ---
A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s       // 16 combos: they block AA and AK, and they play well
K9s, K8s, K7s, K6s       // 16 combos: they block KK and KQ, plus backdoors
Q9s, Q8s, J9s, J8s       // 12 combos (approx.): they block QQ and JJ, plus straights
T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s       // 16 combos: suited connectors that play well
65s, 54s                 // 8 combos: more straights, low value density
AJo, KQo, ATo            // 28 combos: they block premiums and they play well

[…]

Why it works against Incógnito 1:

1. Pure value (3.5% of the whole range): AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK. Against his 4bet (which is value only) we 5bet jam these. His FOLD TO 5BET = 0, but our hands hold 45-55% against his 4bet range (QQ+, AK). With the dead money already in the pot, that is +EV.

2. Plenty of bluffs (~25% of the range): I 3bet any hand with blockers and/or playability that I can fold to a 4bet without crying about it. Facing a 72% fold to 3bets, my bluff needs to work ~67% of the time to show a profit at 9bb — and he folds 72%. The maths is overwhelming.

3. A wide calling range (~35%): this is where I keep every hand that plays well postflop and that I do not want to turn into a bluff, either because it has SDV (AQs, AJs, KJs, etc.) or because it is speculative (pocket pairs, low connectors). Against his postflop leaks —cbet 80% but cbet turn 34%, fold to delayed turn cb 71%— playing IP with this calling range is a gold mine.